Three days to the season and...?
Who knows what to expect from the 2009 University of Louisville football team?
Wholesale changes have occurred since the ignoble end of the 2008 season. For the second straight year, the Cards will break in a new starting quarterback -- Justin Burke, who last played in 2007 for North Carolina State, throwing a grand total of three passes. That happens to be three more than any of his backups has thrown in Division I-A play. (Yes, I know it's properly called the Football Bowl Subdivision -- don't get me started.)
Burke finally won the starting nod when Adam Froman, his main competitor, went down with a shoulder injury. U of L head coach Steve Kragthorpe said, however, that Burke's job will not be in jeopardy merely through Froman's return. So unless he himself is hurt (God forbid) or performs badly (God further forbid), Burke is The Man for '09.
By all reports, his teammates support Burke as the starter. Consensus has it he's the more "cerebral" of the QBs, but doesn't lack for physical talent. While no one fears Burke as a runner, he is nimble enough afoot to get himself out of trouble, according to the defensive linemen who have to corral him in practice. Game action will tell -- but if he's mobile enough to evade the pass rush, that's an upgrade over last year's starter, Hunter Cantwell.
Burke will not lack for weapons. While the Cards will miss short-yardage warhorse Brock Bolen, they welcome back Big East Freshman of the Year Victor Anderson, who topped 1,000 yards while averaging only 15 carries a game, and Bilal Powell, who looks to regain his freshman form after a disappointing sophomore campaign.
Then there are the receivers. Burners Trent Guy and Scott Long appear healthy, after injury-plagued '08 seasons, giving U of L the capacity to play the vertical passing game both Kragthorpe and Cardinal fans so dearly love. Josh Chichester, the 6-foot-8 sophomore who seems to have cut down on his propensity for dropped balls, shows signs of developing into a first-class possession and red-zone receiver. Kragthorpe also said he intends to utilize his tight ends more, which will make opposing defenses less free to double-team Long and/or Guy.
Before the players started to get banged up, and lack of production from the offense and special teams took its toll, the Cardinal defense showed terrific improvement over '07's numbers. While some key players were lost from last year, particularly in the line and secondary, the linebacking corps remains strong, and if the Cards can get better pressure on opposing QBs, the secondary should do well.
Which leads us to the kicking game. Last season, it became painfully apparent early that Art Carmody wasn't coming off the sideline on fourth down any more -- and all too often, neither was any other Cardinal kicker. As a consequence, U of L's offense was forced into far too many fourth-down conversion attempts and surrendered far too much field position when unsuccessful. Again, game action will tell whether and how much the kicking situation has improved.
In the punting game, Corey Goettsche returns -- one hopes, with more consistency. I for one would like to see a 40-yard average that didn't consist of equal parts 51-yard boomers and 29-yard shank jobs. With consistent length and hang time, coverage will have a chance to improve.
The return game has the potential to score points and provide Burke with short fields. Guy has breakaway speed bringing back either kickoffs or punts, and Anderson and Doug Beaumont both can go long distances if the blockers do their jobs.
Now, what will all this translate to in terms of wins and losses? That's hard to say. The Cards should handle Indiana State in the opener -- the Sycamores are truly dreadful, having blown a 17-0 lead in an overtime home loss last Thursday to NAIA member Quincy, ISU's 51st defeat in its last 52 outings. Next comes a Sept. 19 date at Kentucky -- I'd love to see a win, but would settle for a competitive game. This season, I think the Wildcats are deeper and have a few more weapons.
I'd be very surprised to see a win at Utah -- the Utes are a very good team, and the Cards historically have not played all that well in Big Sky country.
Pittsburgh comes to the Pizza Palace for the Big East opener. Here lies an opportunity for U of L to pick up an upset win -- the Panthers have gotten a lot of preseason buzz as a Big East contender and might be ripe for the picking, especially if the Cards come into the game at 1-2.
Former Conference USA rival Southern Mississippi comes in for a pivotal Oct. 10 tilt. U of L should win this one, but I shudder to think of how many times the Cards should have beaten the Golden Eagles, but didn't. A win here, and the Cards take a much more confident attitude into the thick of the schedule; a loss, and it could be Katie, bar the door.
The following week, U of L travels to Connecticut. Beware the fake fair catch. The players may not know the story, but the fan base wants this one badly -- badly enough that they might forgive a 15-yard fair-catch interference penalty under certain circumstances. Donald Brown doesn't play in Storrs anymore -- this game certainly qualifies as winnable.
A road test at Cincinnati looks much more daunting. There was a time the Cards owned UC, but these are not your older brother's Bearcats. Winning here might be a tall order -- I'm calling it a probable loss (much as it hurts to type those words).
The Cards return home on Halloween to host Arkansas State. This might be the last time in '09 U of L is favored to win, and it must hold serve here.
Louisville finishes at West Virginia, vs. Syracuse, at South Florida, and vs. Rutgers. I cannot envision more than two wins in that stretch. U of L has struggled mightily in both Morgantown and Tampa over the years, and though both games will be hard fought, I expect two losses. The Cards will be out for blood when Syracuse comes to town, and they should get it -- the Orange come to town with a bunch of new starters and a new head coach.
Which leaves Rutgers. As in Rutgers 63, Louisville 14, the final game of 2008. Hungry for redemption though they be, the Cards may have a tough time getting it -- but their desire to send their seniors out on a winning note might just carry the day.
The bottom line appears somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5. Less than that would disappoint me enough to think perhaps it's time to show Kragthorpe the door.
Who knows what to expect from the 2009 University of Louisville football team?
Wholesale changes have occurred since the ignoble end of the 2008 season. For the second straight year, the Cards will break in a new starting quarterback -- Justin Burke, who last played in 2007 for North Carolina State, throwing a grand total of three passes. That happens to be three more than any of his backups has thrown in Division I-A play. (Yes, I know it's properly called the Football Bowl Subdivision -- don't get me started.)
Burke finally won the starting nod when Adam Froman, his main competitor, went down with a shoulder injury. U of L head coach Steve Kragthorpe said, however, that Burke's job will not be in jeopardy merely through Froman's return. So unless he himself is hurt (God forbid) or performs badly (God further forbid), Burke is The Man for '09.
By all reports, his teammates support Burke as the starter. Consensus has it he's the more "cerebral" of the QBs, but doesn't lack for physical talent. While no one fears Burke as a runner, he is nimble enough afoot to get himself out of trouble, according to the defensive linemen who have to corral him in practice. Game action will tell -- but if he's mobile enough to evade the pass rush, that's an upgrade over last year's starter, Hunter Cantwell.
Burke will not lack for weapons. While the Cards will miss short-yardage warhorse Brock Bolen, they welcome back Big East Freshman of the Year Victor Anderson, who topped 1,000 yards while averaging only 15 carries a game, and Bilal Powell, who looks to regain his freshman form after a disappointing sophomore campaign.
Then there are the receivers. Burners Trent Guy and Scott Long appear healthy, after injury-plagued '08 seasons, giving U of L the capacity to play the vertical passing game both Kragthorpe and Cardinal fans so dearly love. Josh Chichester, the 6-foot-8 sophomore who seems to have cut down on his propensity for dropped balls, shows signs of developing into a first-class possession and red-zone receiver. Kragthorpe also said he intends to utilize his tight ends more, which will make opposing defenses less free to double-team Long and/or Guy.
Before the players started to get banged up, and lack of production from the offense and special teams took its toll, the Cardinal defense showed terrific improvement over '07's numbers. While some key players were lost from last year, particularly in the line and secondary, the linebacking corps remains strong, and if the Cards can get better pressure on opposing QBs, the secondary should do well.
Which leads us to the kicking game. Last season, it became painfully apparent early that Art Carmody wasn't coming off the sideline on fourth down any more -- and all too often, neither was any other Cardinal kicker. As a consequence, U of L's offense was forced into far too many fourth-down conversion attempts and surrendered far too much field position when unsuccessful. Again, game action will tell whether and how much the kicking situation has improved.
In the punting game, Corey Goettsche returns -- one hopes, with more consistency. I for one would like to see a 40-yard average that didn't consist of equal parts 51-yard boomers and 29-yard shank jobs. With consistent length and hang time, coverage will have a chance to improve.
The return game has the potential to score points and provide Burke with short fields. Guy has breakaway speed bringing back either kickoffs or punts, and Anderson and Doug Beaumont both can go long distances if the blockers do their jobs.
Now, what will all this translate to in terms of wins and losses? That's hard to say. The Cards should handle Indiana State in the opener -- the Sycamores are truly dreadful, having blown a 17-0 lead in an overtime home loss last Thursday to NAIA member Quincy, ISU's 51st defeat in its last 52 outings. Next comes a Sept. 19 date at Kentucky -- I'd love to see a win, but would settle for a competitive game. This season, I think the Wildcats are deeper and have a few more weapons.
I'd be very surprised to see a win at Utah -- the Utes are a very good team, and the Cards historically have not played all that well in Big Sky country.
Pittsburgh comes to the Pizza Palace for the Big East opener. Here lies an opportunity for U of L to pick up an upset win -- the Panthers have gotten a lot of preseason buzz as a Big East contender and might be ripe for the picking, especially if the Cards come into the game at 1-2.
Former Conference USA rival Southern Mississippi comes in for a pivotal Oct. 10 tilt. U of L should win this one, but I shudder to think of how many times the Cards should have beaten the Golden Eagles, but didn't. A win here, and the Cards take a much more confident attitude into the thick of the schedule; a loss, and it could be Katie, bar the door.
The following week, U of L travels to Connecticut. Beware the fake fair catch. The players may not know the story, but the fan base wants this one badly -- badly enough that they might forgive a 15-yard fair-catch interference penalty under certain circumstances. Donald Brown doesn't play in Storrs anymore -- this game certainly qualifies as winnable.
A road test at Cincinnati looks much more daunting. There was a time the Cards owned UC, but these are not your older brother's Bearcats. Winning here might be a tall order -- I'm calling it a probable loss (much as it hurts to type those words).
The Cards return home on Halloween to host Arkansas State. This might be the last time in '09 U of L is favored to win, and it must hold serve here.
Louisville finishes at West Virginia, vs. Syracuse, at South Florida, and vs. Rutgers. I cannot envision more than two wins in that stretch. U of L has struggled mightily in both Morgantown and Tampa over the years, and though both games will be hard fought, I expect two losses. The Cards will be out for blood when Syracuse comes to town, and they should get it -- the Orange come to town with a bunch of new starters and a new head coach.
Which leaves Rutgers. As in Rutgers 63, Louisville 14, the final game of 2008. Hungry for redemption though they be, the Cards may have a tough time getting it -- but their desire to send their seniors out on a winning note might just carry the day.
The bottom line appears somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5. Less than that would disappoint me enough to think perhaps it's time to show Kragthorpe the door.
posted by Alan at 8:21 PM
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