Big East race less of a cavalry charge, thanks to upset

Holy cow, what a difference a week can make in the Big East.

What started out seven days ago as a four-way tie in the loss column is now down to Connecticut and Louisville, as the Huskies beat Marquette and Pitt, for the second time this season, lost a Big East road game after reaching No. 1 in the polls, this time at Providence.

If UConn beats visiting Notre Dame on Saturday, and U of L beats Marquette the following day and Seton Hall on Wednesday, the scenario will hinge entirely on the result of the UConn-Pitt game Mar. 7. A Panther win would give the Cards the chance to capture the title outright by winning at West Virginia that night; a Husky victory would clinch the title regardless of the U of L-WVU result, since UConn won its only meeting with U of L.

Similarly, under those conditions Louisville would capture the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament regardless of a possible loss to the Mountaineers, by virtue of its January win over Pitt. Unless Pitt shocks the rest of college basketball by losing at Seton Hall, a win over Marquette not only would clinch at least the No. 3 seed, it would also put Marquette's hopes for the No. 4 seed (and the last double bye) in grave jeopardy.

In fact, should Villanova win its Saturday game against Georgetown and win again Monday at Notre Dame, Marquette would have to beat Pitt and hope for a Nova loss against Providence on Thursday in order to make its season finale against Syracuse relevant. A loss to Pitt would mean the best Marquette could achieve would be a tie with Nova, which would give the Wildcats the No. 4 seed by virtue of an earlier win over Pitt.

Confused? Don't feel bad -- figuring all this stuff out gives me a headache, and I'm the idiot writing this piece. Here, however, is the essence: if Louisville wins out, it can finish no worse than tied for first and seeded No. 2 in the tournament. If UConn wins out, it wins the title. If Pitt wins out, it can finish no worse than second. If Nova wins out, it finishes fourth. If Marquette wins out -- that would entail road upsets at both Louisville and Pitt. Not likely.

The one thing I know without doubt is, in another week this will all make more sense.

Four battling for lead in Big East home stretch

(I'm a Kentuckian -- forgive the horse racing metaphor...)

With two weeks left in the Big East men's basketball season, four schools lead the way with two losses each in league play. Entering games of Feb. 21, Connecticut has a figurative nose in front, leading Louisville, Pittsburgh and Marquette by a half-game. The Huskies have four conference games left, the other three schools five each.

At stake beside the regular-season championship, of course, are the four double byes into the tournament quarterfinals. Villanova lurks in fifth place with four conference losses.

The current four-way tie in the loss column may survive the weekend, as all four leaders have games they should win. UConn (12-2 Big East) hosts South Florida (3-10); Louisville (11-2) faces Cincinnati (7-6); Pitt (11-2) hosts last-place DePaul (0-13); and Marquette (11-2) travels to Georgetown (5-8). Biggest trap possibilities: Marquette, whose inside game is suspect, faces a dominant frontcourt man in the Hoyas' Greg Monroe, as well as an opponent whose NCAA Tournament hopes are on life support; Louisville, the league's consummate road warrior, goes against an archrival desperately needing a marquee win to impress the selection committee. Still, the Golden Eagles and Cardinals should prevail.

After that, things begin to get verrry interesting, as Arte Johnson used to say.

Monday, Louisville travels to Georgetown, which at this point needs to treat every game as a must-win. A Cardinal victory probably punches GU's ticket to the National Invitation Tournament.

Tuesday, Pitt travels to Providence. The Friars are 5-2 at home in league play, the Panthers 6-1 on the road. Providence, which lives and dies on the perimeter, has no immediately obvious answers for Pitt's lethal inside duo of DeJuan Blair and Sam Young. My pick? Pittsburgh.

Wednesday, UConn visits Marquette. The Huskies are the kind of guests who smash your furniture, abuse your dog and empty your refrigerator; they are undefeated on the road, and center Hasheem Thabeet and forward Jeff Adrien should run amok against the Golden Eagles. Unless Marquette shoots a ridiculous percentage, especially from three-point range, UConn should cruise.

Saturday the 28th, UConn hosts Notre Dame; the Irish have been abysmal on the road, with only one win in their first seven tries. Pitt invades Seton Hall, which is only 3-5 in conference home games.

Sunday, March 1, Marquette gets another dose of backloaded scheduling as the Golden Eagles head to Louisville. The U of L-Marquette series has been fraught with weird happenings since at least the mid-1970s, but the Cards' frontcourt has enough versatility and muscle to negate Marquette's excellent guards. U of L head coach Rick Pitino also will have two days of extra preparation -- good enough reasons for me to expect a Louisville win.

Wednesday, March 4, Louisville hosts Seton Hall. Expect the Cards to get a huge lift from a Senior Night crowd bidding farewell to two fan favorites, Terrence Williams and Andre McGee -- this one has "blowout" written all over it. Also that night, Marquette concludes its Murderers' Row stretch at Pitt, probably with Villanova breathing down its neck in a battle for the fourth double bye.

The league schedule wraps up Saturday, March 7. That afternoon, UConn plays at Pitt, in a game that could decide who gets the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. If the scenario plays itself out as I've envisioned it, UConn, Pitt and Louisville all would enter the final day with 15-2 league records. Louisville wraps up the Big East regular season at West Virginia that night, and Marquette hosts Syracuse.

If UConn beats Pitt, the Huskies would win the title regardless of the U of L-WVU result, because UConn won the head-to-head meeting. If the Panthers win, a Louisville victory would give the Cards the championship by virtue of their January upset of then-No. 1 Pitt.

Horse racing fans can only hope for a stretch drive this thrilling in the Kentucky Derby.

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University of Louisville All-Time Men's Basketball All-Stars
Any list of the most talented men ever to play basketball for the University of Louisville must begin with Wes Unseld and Darrell Griffith.
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